// # declaration of endogenous variables
var inf, y, i, r, a;

// # declaration of exogenous variables
varexo eas, eis, emp, er, e;

// # declaration of parameters
parameters kappa, delta, sigma, rho, phi_inf, phi_y, rho_r, psi, rho_a;

// # specification of the model equations
model(linear);

/*1*/  inf=kappa*y+(1-delta)*inf(+1)+delta*inf(-1)+eas;
/*2*/  y=y(+1)-(1/sigma)*(i-inf(+1)-r)+eis;
/*3*/  i=rho+(phi_inf)*inf+(phi_y)*y+emp;
/*4*/  r=(rho_r)+sigma*psi*(a(+1)-a);
/*5*/  a=(rho_a)*a(-1)+e;
end;

// # observed variables
varobs inf, y, i, a;

// # conditions
initval;
y=0;
inf=0;
i=0;
r=0;
a=0;
end;


// # declaration of priors
estimated_params; 
kappa, gamma_pdf, 0.5, 0.25;
delta, beta_pdf, 0.5, 0.2;
sigma, gamma_pdf, 0.5, 0.2;
rho, beta_pdf, 0.9, 0.1;
phi_inf, gamma_pdf, 1.5, 0.5;
phi_y, gamma_pdf, 0.25, 0.1;
rho_r, beta_pdf, 0.8, 0.1;
psi, beta_pdf, 0.6, 0.1;
rho_a, beta_pdf, 0.7, 0.1;
end; 

// # estimation
estimation (datafile=CH_data_1, xls_sheet=final,mh_replic=2000,mh_nblocks=2,mh_drop=0.45,mh_jscale=0.8) inf, y, i, r, a;