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-0.013270366
-0.010793007
-0.001765547
-0.031087699
-0.045522741
-0.02742289
-0.022448045
-0.011329606
-0.019596956
-0.013583048
-0.019142037
-0.002912801
-0.017324976
-0.010592363];

spread2=[-2.90
-1.48
1.74
-3.02
-3.41
-3.80
-2.66
1.03
0.78
0.00
2.75
2.59
3.19
2.77
2.88
2.98
2.60
2.66
1.60
3.08
3.78
3.71
3.13
2.47
1.75
2.08
2.62
2.41
2.15
2.52
2.91
3.30
2.89
2.65
1.98
1.04
0.24
-0.24
-0.12
0.28
0.94
1.15
1.24
1.55
2.51
3.05
3.14
3.63
4.26
4.51
4.72
4.99
4.69
4.41
3.83
3.85
3.95
4.01
3.69
3.40
2.47
1.64
1.64
1.27
1.69
2.37
2.28
1.95
2.15
2.05
1.64
1.37
1.15
1.14
0.96
1.47
1.69
2.19
2.23
2.18
2.04
1.49
1.09
0.93
1.48
2.90
3.61
4.79
4.89
4.96
4.61
4.84
4.75
4.06
4.68
4.66
4.45
4.92
4.21
3.54
2.85
2.20
1.63
1.40
0.93
0.99
0.43
0.14
0.11
0.33
0.68
1.03
2.28
3.51
3.71
5.31
5.09
5.33
5.11
5.08
5.16
4.85
4.39
4.67
4.97
4.94
4.38
3.85
3.79
3.65
3.31
3.38
3.73
3.85
4.42
4.51
4.37
4.12
4.03
3.78
3.46
3.77
3.95]/400;

spread=[-1.57
0.67
3.33
-1.18
-1.32
-2.01
-1.10
3.10
2.81
2.27
5.24
5.10
5.18
4.45
4.07
4.18
4.06
4.14
3.32
4.34
4.92
5.10
4.57
3.87
3.19
3.35
3.97
3.83
3.44
3.71
4.06
4.46
4.09
3.82
3.09
2.04
1.20
0.64
0.80
1.20
1.85
2.07
2.26
2.85
3.78
4.06
4.04
4.58
5.18
5.36
5.45
5.83
5.36
5.14
4.56
4.56
4.63
4.66
4.35
4.04
3.07
2.21
2.26
1.92
2.35
3.05
2.99
2.64
2.79
2.66
2.22
1.93
1.73
1.75
1.59
2.39
2.67
2.99
3.01
2.93
2.65
2.32
1.80
1.74
2.29
3.71
4.45
5.79
6.22
6.27
5.89
6.16
5.87
5.23
5.79
5.67
5.27
5.65
5.02
4.24
3.50
3.03
2.52
2.36
1.85
1.83
1.35
1.03
1.04
1.24
1.56
2.01
3.57
4.90
5.27
8.33
8.03
7.80
6.50
6.21
6.15
5.98
5.59
5.73
5.93
5.76
5.38
5.18
5.10
4.94
4.73
4.41
4.67
4.72
5.32
5.27
5.04
4.73
4.65
4.64
4.39
4.71
5.11]/400;

h2=[-2.953752188
-2.960780771
-2.963913588
-2.960777512
-2.960783144
-2.964511146
-2.96776357
-2.966957594
-2.975102492
-2.973318955
-2.977693766
-2.981657036
-2.980022687
-2.976976643
-2.971552498
-2.96791112
-2.962016894
-2.95710413
-2.956707989
-2.956465054
-2.954497279
-2.952970875
-2.952193031
-2.95115855
-2.95397192
-2.95370412
-2.954178329
-2.951726601
-2.94835849
-2.948494365
-2.948211474
-2.942767264
-2.942994901
-2.937941393
-2.93848887
-2.934877003
-2.932088643
-2.930569385
-2.931046076
-2.929808432
-2.932967303
-2.936352403
-2.937213449
-2.939642936
-2.943845663
-2.946670411
-2.947358051
-2.948880151
-2.951165525
-2.949994016
-2.951176244
-2.950031964
-2.948166988
-2.944310854
-2.944659051
-2.942937585
-2.941682156
-2.936255891
-2.933244835
-2.932458242
-2.929592298
-2.930310904
-2.927582226
-2.929466969
-2.932672364
-2.929313833
-2.926979164
-2.92381064
-2.923226317
-2.921544114
-2.919967561
-2.919277497
-2.917299093
-2.916570208
-2.917123874
-2.913340871
-2.915090977
-2.912635891
-2.912536976
-2.911452996
-2.91475795
-2.915001076
-2.917252204
-2.920347698
-2.92153349
-2.92580882
-2.929444281
-2.933654675
-2.937657746
-2.936577164
-2.938572684
-2.939417824
-2.944990304
-2.947816429
-2.948276574
-2.947965111
-2.946096233
-2.947082528
-2.946512711
-2.947037301
-2.946004576
-2.944990287
-2.945280591
-2.945839041
-2.943318996
-2.943501625
-2.942749759
-2.942128884
-2.944335485
-2.944146855
-2.946513288
-2.947069086
-2.947325013
-2.949511153
-2.954343056
-2.963366069
-2.97242628
-2.980292154
-2.986531486
-2.987998109
-2.987886524
-2.984346457
-2.985330759
-2.984912148
-2.984181605
-2.982600335
-2.981703495
-2.980378672
-2.982282839
-2.982934677
-2.980256691
-2.980003793
-2.981003313
-2.981171204
-2.980026562
-2.978970107
-2.979602571
-2.976479669
-2.975833594
-2.972839363
-2.972640467
-2.9717083
-2.972848316];

dh2=[-0.00328383
-0.007028583
-0.003132817
0.003136076
-5.63183E-06
-0.003728002
-0.003252423
0.000805976
-0.008144898
0.001783537
-0.004374811
-0.00396327
0.001634349
0.003046044
0.005424145
0.003641377
0.005894226
0.004912764
0.000396141
0.000242935
0.001967775
0.001526404
0.000777844
0.001034481
-0.00281337
0.000267799
-0.000474209
0.002451728
0.003368111
-0.000135875
0.000282891
0.00544421
-0.000227637
0.005053507
-0.000547477
0.003611868
0.002788359
0.001519258
-0.00047669
0.001237643
-0.00315887
-0.0033851
-0.000861047
-0.002429487
-0.004202726
-0.002824748
-0.00068764
-0.0015221
-0.002285374
0.001171508
-0.001182227
0.00114428
0.001864976
0.003856133
-0.000348197
0.001721466
0.001255429
0.005426265
0.003011056
0.000786593
0.002865944
-0.000718606
0.002728678
-0.001884744
-0.003205395
0.003358531
0.002334668
0.003168524
0.000584323
0.001682203
0.001576553
0.000690064
0.001978404
0.000728884
-0.000553666
0.003783003
-0.001750106
0.002455086
9.89154E-05
0.001083979
-0.003304954
-0.000243126
-0.002251128
-0.003095494
-0.001185792
-0.00427533
-0.003635461
-0.004210394
-0.004003071
0.001080582
-0.00199552
-0.000845141
-0.005572479
-0.002826126
-0.000460145
0.000311463
0.001868878
-0.000986295
0.000569817
-0.000524591
0.001032726
0.001014288
-0.000290304
-0.00055845
0.002520045
-0.000182629
0.000751866
0.000620874
-0.0022066
0.000188629
-0.002366433
-0.000555798
-0.000255927
-0.00218614
-0.004831903
-0.009023013
-0.009060211
-0.007865875
-0.006239332
-0.001466623
0.000111585
0.003540067
-0.000984302
0.000418611
0.000730543
0.00158127
0.00089684
0.001324824
-0.001904167
-0.000651839
0.002677986
0.000252898
-0.00099952
-0.000167891
0.001144642
0.001056455
-0.000632464
0.003122903
0.000646075
0.00299423
0.000198896
0.000932167
-0.001140016];

g=[0.004838566	-0.000170702	-0.008258158	-0.001520255	0.004129848	-5.90275E-05	-0.003138332	0.00339398	-0.001735993	0.001501875	0.001459657	0.005565295	0.002991887	0.003223067	0.005840692	-0.008578148	0.003248106	0.00852436	0.002413784	0.006899227	0.004237466	0.008953783	0.008952846	0.000142233	0.001465114	0.007560693	0.008554976	-0.003810255	0.00121829	0.002672873	-0.00015509	0.004174311	-0.004127917	0.000551139	-0.000752366	0.007116704	-0.00318992	0.006106481	0.002631751	0.001363764	0.003305245	0.000140909	-0.0012572	0.002789473	0.001193061	0.000659206	-0.00266425	-0.002856842	0.002395731	-0.001534125	0.001070596	-0.002271303	-0.00605119	-0.000518114	-0.000222416	-0.000292286	-0.006428774	0.001567499	0.006072748	-0.005150076	0.000275441	0.001357227	-0.002302051	-0.005114313	-1.41625E-05	0.005809082	-0.000778262	0.001853991	-0.002124482	0.003547811	-0.000434265	-0.000566615	-0.003505085	0.007651832	0.002705215	0.002656712	-6.34148E-05	0.001252073	0.003799636	0.005108721	-0.009630357	0.003916836	-0.002283259	3.87152E-05	0.005312994	0.007181959	-0.001690157	0.004889297	0.005261626	0.003062557	0.002024226	0.001745558	-0.004509873	0.005471671	-0.001451293	0.000867512	0.00102656	0.001276788	0.000278691	-0.003346773	-0.000291433	-0.00047784	0.001942977	-0.003057417	0.002399264	0.00034056	-0.000436837	0.001432611	-0.002730756	0.002434542	0.001767772	0.000380042	0.002041295	0.002244691	0.004669471	0.001508621	0.000499631	0.006844827	0.00120895	-0.002049472	-0.003634959	0.00214381	-0.0014637	-0.00561169	-0.008724647	-0.001306296	-0.003756715	-0.002716584	-0.005738003	-0.003057445	-0.002321273	-0.005317789	-0.006185529	-0.00317948	-0.003490364	-0.004064904	-0.000932701	0.000299344	0.000879247	-0.002627251	-0.001913454	0.001826268	0.000839582]';

dcobs=data(:,1);
dcobs=dcobs-mean(dcobs);
diobs=data(:,2);
diobs=diobs-mean(diobs);
dshareobs=data(:,3);
dshareobs=dshareobs-mean(dshareobs);
dshareobs2=data(:,4);
dshareobs2=dshareobs2-mean(dshareobs2);
hoursobs=h2;
hoursobs=hoursobs-mean(hoursobs);
hoursobs2=data(:,5);
hoursobs2=hoursobs2-mean(hoursobs2);
dhoursobs=dh2;
dhoursobs=dhoursobs-mean(dhoursobs);
shareobs=data(:,6);
%shareobs=shareobs-mean(shareobs);
%X=[ones(length(shareobs),1) [1:length(shareobs)]' ([1:length(shareobs)].^2)' ([1:length(shareobs)].^3)'];
%beta=(X'*X)^(-1)*X'*shareobs;
%dshareobs=shareobs-X*beta;
%hp_filter=1600;
%shareobs_trend=hpfilter(shareobs,hp_filter);
dss=dss-mean(dss);
%dshareobs=shareobs-shareobs_trend;
spreadobs=(spread-mean(spread));
spreadobs2=(spread2-mean(spread2));
dgobs=g;
dgobs=dgobs-mean(dgobs);

n_skip=31;
diobs_nc=diobs(1:end-n_skip);
dshareobs_nc=dshareobs(1:end-n_skip);
hoursobs_nc=hoursobs(1:end-n_skip);
spreadobs_nc=spreadobs(1:end-n_skip);