exog=zeros(119,1);
exog = [0.0132
0.026
0.0385
0.0506
0.0624
0.0738
0.0849
0.0957
0.1061
0.1163
0.1261
0.1357
0.1449
0.1539
0.1626
0.171
0.1791
0.187
0.1947
0.2021
0.2092
0.2161
0.2228
0.2292
0.2355
0.2415
0.2473
0.2529
0.2582
0.2634
0.2684
0.2732
0.2779
0.2823
0.2866
0.2906
0.2946
0.2983
0.3019
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054];

exog = [exog
    0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054
0.3054];


ebs = exog(1:250)./10;
%ebs = zeros(250,1);