data_q = [
91.81 1364.14521 309.02178
92.62 1382.7083 309.02178
93.33 1405.03309 309.02178
93.75 1417.19587 309.02178
94.2 1430.21019	309.83807
94.41 1446.51141 309.83807
94.87 1461.08846 309.83807
95.11 1461.54169 309.83807
95.53 1461.77823 310.62444
95.8 1477.59618	310.62444
96.24 1487.45161 310.62444
96.57 1507.78683 310.62444
96.81 1514.37483 311.28291
97.56 1532.28328 311.28291
97.78 1548.29301 311.28291
98.17 1565.24586 311.28291
98.16 1581.29184 312.14703
98.53 1596.46501 312.14703
98.75 1618.99694 312.14703
98.97 1641.27549 312.14703
99.39 1668.43493 313.33498
99.76 1689.21425 313.33498
100.23 1705.09086 313.33498
100.62 1723.8081 313.33498
101.47 1751.18211 314.77023
102.16 1764.40804 314.77023
102.74 1775.64152 314.77023
103.53 1791.73028 314.77023
104.28 1808.88723 316.53244
104.64 1823.36357 316.53244
105.44 1843.68194 316.53244
106.06 1856.68853 316.53244
106.53 1865.20939 318.50462
107.13 1875.75668 318.50462
107.92 1899.12504 318.50462
108.11 1914.74297 318.50462
108.72 1936.16708 320.55857
109.29 1956.25783 320.55857
109.66 1970.00524 320.55857
110.12 1984.85414 320.55857
110.76 2002.01247 322.51723
111.36 2026.80332 322.51723
111.79 2046.72067 322.51723
112.43 2069.85168 322.51723
112.9 2096.04323 324.23204
113.54 2130.86312 324.23204
114	2152.76262 324.23204
114.54 2182.71185 324.23204
115.57 2220.1283 326.13756
116.24 2242.53366 326.13756
116.72 2265.78251 326.13756
117.27 2284.89073 326.13756
118.01 2316.51372 327.90879
118.85 2325.1351 327.90879
119.23 2322.35605 327.90879
120.06 2294.22848 327.90879
120.11 2237.14557 329.10793
120.04 2233.83317 329.10793
120.23 2246.3139 329.10793
120.3 2250.46404 329.10793
120.75 2263.4343 329.10793
];
%GDPD  GDPQ   GPOP

series = zeros(61,2);
series(:,2) = data_q(:,1);
series(:,1) = 1000*data_q(:,2)./data_q(:,3);

Y_obs = series(:,1);
P_obs = series(:,2);

series = series(2:61,:)./series(1:60,:);

gy_obs = series(:,1);
gp_obs = series(:,2);

ti = [1995:0.25:2010.50];