Dear all,

I am currently trying to estimate small open economy model based on Adolfson et al.(2005) with uncertainty shock.

Problem is that the model is just working when I do stochastic simulation such that "stoch_simul(order=3, pruning, irf=20) Y C X"

but in estimation with unstable dynare version(2017-01-12), I got following message and I have no idea what to do.

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choose one of the following options:

[1] Consider all the endogenous variables.

[2] Consider all the observed endogenous variables.

[3] Stop Dynare and change the mod file.

options [default is 1] = 1

Estimation using a non linear filter!

Error in computing likelihood for initial parameter values

ESTIMATION_CHECKS: There was an error in computing the likelihood for initial parameter values.

ESTIMATION_CHECKS: If this is not a problem with the setting of options (check the error message below),

ESTIMATION_CHECKS: you should try using the calibrated version of the model as starting values. To do

ESTIMATION_CHECKS: this, add an empty estimated_params_init-block with use_calibration option immediately before the estimation

ESTIMATION_CHECKS: command (and after the estimated_params-block so that it does not get overwritten):

Error using print_info (line 42)

Blanchard Kahn conditions are not satisfied: no stable equilibrium

Error in print_info (line 42)

error(['Blanchard Kahn conditions are not satisfied: no stable' ...

Error in initial_estimation_checks (line 169)

print_info(info, DynareOptions.noprint, DynareOptions)

Error in dynare_estimation_1 (line 149)

oo_ =

initial_estimation_checks(objective_function,xparam1,dataset_,dataset_info,M_,estim_params_,options_,bayestopt_,bounds,oo_);

Error in dynare_estimation (line 105)

dynare_estimation_1(var_list,dname);

Error in uncertainty_posting (line 1070)

oo_recursive_=dynare_estimation(var_list_);

Error in dynare (line 223)

evalin('base',fname) ;

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Also, with dynare version 4.4.3, I got this message

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Choose one of the following options:

[1] Consider all the endogenous variables.

[2] Consider all the observed endogenous variables.

[3] Stop Dynare and change the mod file.

options [default is 1] = 1

Estimation using a non linear filter!

Loading 66 observations from dataforuncertainty2.xlsx

Initial value of the log posterior (or likelihood): -100000000

n=35: (7,14)-CMA-ES(w=[36 24 16 11 7 4 1]%, mu_eff=4.3) on function non_linear_dsge_likelihood

reduced_rank_cholesky:: Input matrix is not semidefinite positive!

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and matlab says "busy" for a long time.

Pleas let me know what is a problem and which dynare version should I use.