How to intepret the result of comparision

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How to intepret the result of comparision

Postby Kornchanok » Thu Dec 29, 2011 4:39 pm

Dear all Dynare User,

I'm trying to compare the models via model comparision command, model_comparision m1_R1 m0_R1. I already got the result, which I display as following. I'm not quite sure that do I can conclude the result by using the Posterior Model Probability, or I need to compute the posterior odd ratio by myself. If I need to compute the posterior odd ratio, the formulation is (prior of m1_R1/prior of m0_R1)*(log margimat data density of m1_R1/log margimat data density of m0_R1 ), right???

Model Comparison

Model m1_R1 m0_R1
Priors 0.500000 0.500000
Log Marginal Density -450.472967 -211.332105
Bayes Ratio 1.00000072037201844024017000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000.000000
Posterior Model Probability 0.000000 1.000000

Thank you very much
Kornchanok
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Re: How to intepret the result of comparision

Postby jpfeifer » Mon Jan 09, 2012 6:26 pm

There is a good explanation in Koop's book "Bayesian Econometrics".
------------
Johannes Pfeifer
University of Cologne
https://sites.google.com/site/pfeiferecon/
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