Conditonal in-sample forecasts "a la Sims"

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Conditonal in-sample forecasts "a la Sims"

Postby Robert B. » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:30 pm

Hi all,

in the dynare manual (4.15 Forecasting) is says that the command "bvar_forecast" can be used both for out-sample and in-sample forecasts.

But how do you do an in-sample forecast?

Is it possible to use this command for for conditional forecasts as well? How would I do it?

I would really appreciate your help; I am quite new to dynare...

Thanks a lot,
Robert
Robert B.
 
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Re: Conditonal in-sample forecasts "a la Sims"

Postby SébastienVillemot » Fri Aug 10, 2012 1:05 pm

The manual is obviously wrong: there is currently no in-sample forecasting capability, though this would not necessary be too hard to implement. I will fix the manual.

Also, there is no conditional forecast possibility.

Both can probably be implemented with a little programming in bvar_toolbox.m and bvar_forecast.m.

Best,
Sébastien Villemot
Economist at OFCE – Sciences Po
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