Monetary rule optimization
Posted: Sun Mar 31, 2013 10:37 am
Hi,
The purpose of my work is to optimize a monetary rule (obtain the parameter alpha and beta and the theoritical moments). I have estimated coeifficients of my model first and I have inscrived in my script the joint program.
var y, pi, br, tcn;
varexo ey, epi, ebr, etcn;
parameters a1, a2, a3, b1, b2, c1, c2, d1, d2, e, f, g, alpha, beta;
a1=1.0;
a2=0.25;
a3=0.3;
b1=0.48;
b2=0.49;
c1=0.23;
c2=0.31;
d1=-0.004;
d2=0.009;
e=-0.1;
f=0.31;
g=0.8;
model;
y=a1*y(-3)+a2*y(+1)+a3*pi(-2)+b1*br(-1)+b2*br(-2)+ey;
pi=c1*pi(-1)+c2*pi(+1)+d1*y(-1)+d2*y(-2)+e*tcn(-3)+epi;
br=g*br(-1)+alpha*y+beta*pi+ebr;
tcn=f*tcn(-1)+etcn;
end;
optim_weights;
y 1;
pi 1;
end;
osr_params alpha beta;
alpha=-0.5;
beta=-0.5;
osr;
The results obtained were as follow:
OPTIMAL VALUE OF THE PARAMETERS:
alpha -0.5
beta -0.5
Objective function : 0
MODEL SUMMARY
Number of variables: 10
Number of stochastic shocks: 4
Number of state variables: 10
Number of jumpers: 2
Number of static variables: 0
MATRIX OF COVARIANCE OF EXOGENOUS SHOCKS
Variables ey epi ebr etcn
ey 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
epi 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
ebr 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
etcn 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
POLICY AND TRANSITION FUNCTIONS
y pi br tcn
br(-1) 0.681096 -0.000364 0.459634 0
tcn(-1) 0.002059 -0.013658 0.005799 0.310000
y(-2) 0.216699 0.009585 -0.113142 0
y(-3) 0.932430 -0.000297 -0.466067 0
pi(-2) 0.279729 -0.000089 -0.139820 0
br(-2) 0.456891 -0.000146 -0.228373 0
tcn(-2) 0.004203 -0.036415 0.016106 0
tcn(-3) 0.007385 -0.108382 0.050498 0
y(-1) 0.050590 -0.001131 -0.024730 0
pi(-1) 0.048223 0.249228 -0.148725 0
ey 0.932430 -0.000297 -0.466067 0
epi -0.073853 1.083819 -0.504982 0
ebr 0.158777 -0.000173 0.920698 0
etcn 0.000793 -0.004589 0.001898 1.000000
THEORETICAL MOMENTS
VARIABLE MEAN STD. DEV. VARIANCE
y 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
pi 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
br 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
tcn 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION (in percent)
ey epi ebr etcn
y 83.80 4.76 11.34 0.10
pi 0.14 97.84 0.02 2.00
br 42.96 15.66 40.93 0.45
tcn 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00
All endogenous are constant or non stationary, not displaying correlations and auto-correlations
I guess that there is a problem somewhere.
Any help?
Thanks
The purpose of my work is to optimize a monetary rule (obtain the parameter alpha and beta and the theoritical moments). I have estimated coeifficients of my model first and I have inscrived in my script the joint program.
var y, pi, br, tcn;
varexo ey, epi, ebr, etcn;
parameters a1, a2, a3, b1, b2, c1, c2, d1, d2, e, f, g, alpha, beta;
a1=1.0;
a2=0.25;
a3=0.3;
b1=0.48;
b2=0.49;
c1=0.23;
c2=0.31;
d1=-0.004;
d2=0.009;
e=-0.1;
f=0.31;
g=0.8;
model;
y=a1*y(-3)+a2*y(+1)+a3*pi(-2)+b1*br(-1)+b2*br(-2)+ey;
pi=c1*pi(-1)+c2*pi(+1)+d1*y(-1)+d2*y(-2)+e*tcn(-3)+epi;
br=g*br(-1)+alpha*y+beta*pi+ebr;
tcn=f*tcn(-1)+etcn;
end;
optim_weights;
y 1;
pi 1;
end;
osr_params alpha beta;
alpha=-0.5;
beta=-0.5;
osr;
The results obtained were as follow:
OPTIMAL VALUE OF THE PARAMETERS:
alpha -0.5
beta -0.5
Objective function : 0
MODEL SUMMARY
Number of variables: 10
Number of stochastic shocks: 4
Number of state variables: 10
Number of jumpers: 2
Number of static variables: 0
MATRIX OF COVARIANCE OF EXOGENOUS SHOCKS
Variables ey epi ebr etcn
ey 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
epi 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
ebr 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
etcn 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
POLICY AND TRANSITION FUNCTIONS
y pi br tcn
br(-1) 0.681096 -0.000364 0.459634 0
tcn(-1) 0.002059 -0.013658 0.005799 0.310000
y(-2) 0.216699 0.009585 -0.113142 0
y(-3) 0.932430 -0.000297 -0.466067 0
pi(-2) 0.279729 -0.000089 -0.139820 0
br(-2) 0.456891 -0.000146 -0.228373 0
tcn(-2) 0.004203 -0.036415 0.016106 0
tcn(-3) 0.007385 -0.108382 0.050498 0
y(-1) 0.050590 -0.001131 -0.024730 0
pi(-1) 0.048223 0.249228 -0.148725 0
ey 0.932430 -0.000297 -0.466067 0
epi -0.073853 1.083819 -0.504982 0
ebr 0.158777 -0.000173 0.920698 0
etcn 0.000793 -0.004589 0.001898 1.000000
THEORETICAL MOMENTS
VARIABLE MEAN STD. DEV. VARIANCE
y 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
pi 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
br 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
tcn 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION (in percent)
ey epi ebr etcn
y 83.80 4.76 11.34 0.10
pi 0.14 97.84 0.02 2.00
br 42.96 15.66 40.93 0.45
tcn 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00
All endogenous are constant or non stationary, not displaying correlations and auto-correlations
I guess that there is a problem somewhere.
Any help?
Thanks