@#define total_obs = [191,190,189,188]
@#for start_obs in 1:4
estimation(order=1, datafile=fsdat_simul,first_obs=@{start_obs},nobs=@{total_obs[start_obs]},loglinear, mh_replic=2000, mh_nblocks=2, mh_jscale=0.8);
save results_@{start_obs};
@#endfor
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