posterior plots of standard error collapses

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posterior plots of standard error collapses

Postby sujee2sujee » Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:12 pm

Dear all,

Thank you in advance for your valuable time. I am trying to estimate an open economy DSGE model. When I estimate multivariate convergence diagnostics converges, But I am worried about the posterior plots of standard error of shocks. Does this indicate any problem? How can I improve this? All relevant details are added in the attached word file

sujee
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Re: posterior plots of standard error collapses

Postby jpfeifer » Wed Jun 11, 2014 9:55 pm

It's hard to tell without context. Do you have reason to be suspicious? It just looks as if your posterior was bigger than what the data implies and Bayesian updating was successful because the posterior is different than the prior.

If there is a problem, my guess is the data treatment. It looks as if you are aiming standard errors of 1 representing 1%. So did you make sure your data is in percent and scaled accordingly (by 100)?
------------
Johannes Pfeifer
University of Cologne
https://sites.google.com/site/pfeiferecon/
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Re: posterior plots of standard error collapses

Postby sujee2sujee » Wed Jun 11, 2014 10:19 pm

Thank you. I haven't done the scaling. I will do that and check if that works.

Sujee
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