Choosing an appropriate standard deviation for prior

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Choosing an appropriate standard deviation for prior

Postby mrafei » Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:49 am

I wonder if it is possible for you to answer my following question about the estimation of the parameters in DSGE models.
Due to a debate between me and some of my colleagues about the selection of proper standard deviation of prior for an specific parameter, I claimed that this value for standard deviation is subjective and in a Pdfs such as Gamma distribution, it is not really important to be 0.1 or 0.01 or 0.001. In other word, I claimed that if I could make a Gamma distribution with a standard deviation of 0.001 then it is sufficient and it will not need to be checked for the case of 0.01.
I would be glad if you add a comment on this issue and I wonder if you would give us an example.
mrafei
 
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Re: Choosing an appropriate standard deviation for prior

Postby jpfeifer » Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:56 am

Of course a prior is subjective and you can chose anything you like. But you would still need to able to defend your prior to other researchers. Thus, your prior should reflect what we know about a particular parameter. For example, the prior should roughly reflect the uncertainty we have about a particular value of a parameter. It is here where your standard deviation of the Gamma prior of 0.1 or 0.01 or 0.001 matters. 0.001 strikes me as way too narrow, because you are effectively saying you know the true standard deviation to be in a tiny interval around the mean.
With sufficient data it is often advocated to err on the uninformative side for your prior in order to let the data speak.
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Johannes Pfeifer
University of Cologne
https://sites.google.com/site/pfeiferecon/
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Re: Choosing an appropriate standard deviation for prior

Postby mrafei » Sun Dec 07, 2014 9:48 am

Thanks so much indeed for your answer
I wonder to know whether there is a relation between Standard deviation of prior and the one we have for my data?
I also want to know if it is possible for me to take my prior's standard deviation to be small for the case in which I chose my data standard deviation to be small?
mrafei
 
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Re: Choosing an appropriate standard deviation for prior

Postby jpfeifer » Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:34 am

The standard deviation of a prior is a measure of your uncertainty about this prior. It has (almost) nothing to do with the level of the standard deviation of the data. If you are sure that your shock standard deviation is narrowly centered around a particlar value (big or small) choose a small standard deviation for the prior. If you are uncertain about the mean of the shock standard deviation, choose a large standard deviation for the prior.
------------
Johannes Pfeifer
University of Cologne
https://sites.google.com/site/pfeiferecon/
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Re: Choosing an appropriate standard deviation for prior

Postby mrafei » Mon Jan 05, 2015 5:11 pm

Is the choice of small deviation for prior distribution caused that the prior distribution dominates the likelihood function and as a result it makes the prior distribution and posterior functions to be equal?
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Re: Choosing an appropriate standard deviation for prior

Postby jpfeifer » Mon Jan 05, 2015 10:39 pm

Yes. this can happen, although there are other reasons that might also give rise to the described behavior.
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Johannes Pfeifer
University of Cologne
https://sites.google.com/site/pfeiferecon/
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Re: Choosing an appropriate standard deviation for prior

Postby mrafei » Tue Jan 06, 2015 5:42 pm

How could we say that any of our choice for standard deviation range would be big or small? how could we interpret or know being of big or small range?
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Re: Choosing an appropriate standard deviation for prior

Postby jpfeifer » Thu Jan 08, 2015 9:24 pm

Take a look at the prior plots to see how peaked the likelihood is.
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Johannes Pfeifer
University of Cologne
https://sites.google.com/site/pfeiferecon/
jpfeifer
 
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Joined: Sun Feb 21, 2010 4:02 pm
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