error in bayesian estimation

[monsoon]

hi,

I have a simulated model (attached) and now I am trying to estimate it using bayesian methods. However, posterior density graphs are not showing up during the whole process. Errors generated

Error using chol
Matrix must be positive definite.

Error in metropolis_hastings_initialization (line 68)
d = chol(vv);

Error in random_walk_metropolis_hastings (line 62)
[ ix2, ilogpo2, ModelName, MetropolisFolder, fblck, fline, npar, nblck, nruns, NewFile, MAX_nruns, d ] = ...

Error in dynare_estimation_1 (line 782)
feval(options_.posterior_sampling_method,objective_function,options_.proposal_distribution,xparam1,invhess,bounds,dataset_,options_,M_,estim_params_,bayestopt_,oo_);

Error in dynare_estimation (line 89)
dynare_estimation_1(var_list,dname);

Error in utility_10 (line 659)
dynare_estimation(var_list_);

Error in dynare (line 180)
evalin('base',fname) ;

How do I rectify this?

[jpfeifer]

At a minimum, there is an identification issue:

phi_p is not identified by J moments!
[dJ/d(phi_p)=0 for all J moments!]
phi_y is not identified by J moments!
[dJ/d(phi_y)=0 for all J moments!]

Given your observables, you cannot estimate those parameters. Moreover, your observation equations may not be correct. The means of the data are very different from the variables in the dataset. Also, some of the variables seem to have a seasonal pattern.