Some problems in estimating a model

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Some problems in estimating a model

Postby wangxiang » Wed May 22, 2013 3:17 pm

Dear ,all:
I have stimulated a model very well ,but when i estimate the model using my own data I always get the following error messages:

""Loading 48 observations from wangxiang.m

Error in computing likelihood for initial parameter values
??? Error using ==> print_info at 40
Blanchard Kahn conditions are not satisfied: no stable
equilibrium

Error in ==> initial_estimation_checks at 69
print_info(info, DynareOptions.noprint)

Error in ==> dynare_estimation_1 at 147
oo_ =
initial_estimation_checks(objective_function,xparam1,dataset_,M_,estim_params_,options_,bayestopt_,oo_);

Error in ==> dynare_estimation at 70
dynare_estimation_1(var_list,dname);

Error in ==> wxx at 3734
dynare_estimation(var_list_);

Error in ==> dynare at 120
evalin('base',fname) ;
""
I know this means there is something wrong with my setting of initial parameters .I have already used the methods told by dear jpfeifer in the forums and use the same values I've used in the simulation of the mode. But it does not work. I guess there is also something wrong with my prior shapes of parameters and data I used.The detail prior shapes of parameters uesed by the paper are attached in the word file below.
I also attach two mod files and a data file.(wx1.mod is the simulation of the model . wx2.mod is the estimation of the model .wangxiang.m is the data file)
I have 240 observations in wangxiang.m ,but the error message shows that there is only 48 observations loading from the wangxiang.m. I'm confused about it.
Any thoughts would be much appreciated! Thanks in advance.
Attachments
wangxiang.m
The data file.
(2.93 KiB) Downloaded 71 times
wx2.mod
It's the estimation of the model.
(4.02 KiB) Downloaded 66 times
wx1.mod
It's the simulation of the model.
(2.83 KiB) Downloaded 72 times
Prior Distribution.doc
The explanation of prior distribution.
(23 KiB) Downloaded 112 times
wangxiang
 
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:56 am

Re: Some problems in estimating a model

Postby bigbigben » Wed May 22, 2013 3:33 pm

Try to set the lower bound of phi_pi to be 1 as below
phi_pi ,1.17350494813421 ,1.01 ,2, gamma_pdf , 1.24 ,0.25;

or rewrite our Taylor rule equation as:
i = phi_y*(y-yclas) + (1+phi_pi)*pi - eps;

A classical results about Taylor rule is that there would not be a stable equilibrium when the coefficients before pi is less than one.
bigbigben
 
Posts: 171
Joined: Sun May 28, 2006 1:19 am

Re: Some problems in estimating a model

Postby wangxiang » Wed May 22, 2013 11:52 pm

Thank you very much for your fast reply , bigbigben. I have taken your advice and set the low bound to 1, but it also have the same error message , I think there is
also some problems in my prior parameters setting. Could anyone give some ideas about how to modify the parameters setting.
wangxiang
 
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:56 am


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