Bayesian estimation error on linearized model

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Bayesian estimation error on linearized model

Postby magonfru » Sun Oct 27, 2013 7:31 am

Hello Guys, I am trying to replicate a paper. Is a bayesian estimation of a linearized DSGE model. I receive the following error message. "Error in computing likelihood for initial parameter values." I am not sure why is giving this error, I have the same model calibrated with the priors that I am using for the Bayesian estimation and it works. Is there anything wrong on trying to make a bayesian model that is already linearized? PS: sorry I don't know how to upload my data file. I uploaded a xls file

Error in computing likelihood for initial parameter values
Error using print_info (line 40)
Blanchard Kahn conditions are not satisfied: no stable equilibrium

Error in initial_estimation_checks (line 69)
print_info(info, DynareOptions.noprint)

Error in dynare_estimation_1 (line 169)
oo_ =
initial_estimation_checks(objective_function,xparam1,dataset_,M_,estim_params_,options_,bayestopt_,oo_);

Error in dynare_estimation (line 70)
dynare_estimation_1(var_list,dname);

Error in dsge_bubbles_b (line 373)
dynare_estimation(var_list_);

Error in dynare (line 120)
evalin('base',fname) ;
Attachments
data.xls
Data file for bayesian estimation
(56.5 KiB) Downloaded 62 times
dsge_bubbles.mod
Calibrated file
(5.51 KiB) Downloaded 70 times
dsge_bubbles_b.mod
File with the Bayesian estimation
(6.81 KiB) Downloaded 74 times
magonfru
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Oct 27, 2013 5:39 am

Re: Bayesian estimation error on linearized model

Postby jpfeifer » Sun Oct 27, 2013 8:35 am

You must provide the caibrated values as explicit starting values. Otherwise, Dynare uses the prior mean.
------------
Johannes Pfeifer
University of Cologne
https://sites.google.com/site/pfeiferecon/
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Re: Bayesian estimation error on linearized model

Postby magonfru » Sun Oct 27, 2013 4:04 pm

Thanks Jpfeifer, from the beginning I provided the calibrated values as explicit starting values, but it does not work.
magonfru
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Oct 27, 2013 5:39 am

Re: Bayesian estimation error on linearized model

Postby jpfeifer » Sun Oct 27, 2013 4:27 pm

No you don't. You initialize the parameters, but you don't provide those initial values as starting values in either the estimated_params-block nor do you provide an estimated_params_init-block after the estimated_params-block.
------------
Johannes Pfeifer
University of Cologne
https://sites.google.com/site/pfeiferecon/
jpfeifer
 
Posts: 6940
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Location: Cologne, Germany

Re: Bayesian estimation error on linearized model

Postby magonfru » Sun Oct 27, 2013 10:17 pm

Ok I see, I included this model block after the estimated_params block, but still is not working. Also is my understanding that if do not include these block or initial values at the estimated_params block it will use the prior means as initial values, please let me know if I am wrong. I am new in dynare
Thanks

estimated_params_init ;
c_h, 0.333;
c_Omega, 2;
c_delta_delta, 1;
c_xi_bar, 0.2;
c_mu, 2;
rho_a, 0.5;
rho_am, 0.5;
rho_z, 0.5;
rho_zm, 0.5;
rho_theta, 0.5;
rho_psi, 0.5;
rho_xi, 0.5;
stderr e_a, 0.01;
stderr e_am, 0.01;
stderr e_z, 0.01;
stderr e_zm, 0.01;
stderr e_psi, 0.01;
stderr e_xi, 0.01;
stderr e_theta, 0.01;
end;
magonfru
 
Posts: 12
Joined: Sun Oct 27, 2013 5:39 am

Re: Bayesian estimation error on linearized model

Postby donihue » Sat Nov 02, 2013 6:47 pm

The data you posted is identical for all variables.
Regards
Donihue
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