Simulating DSGE with Markov switching process

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Simulating DSGE with Markov switching process

Postby nastforest » Sat Jan 11, 2014 6:32 pm

Hello,

1. Is it possible to simulate a given DSGE model with specified Markov-switching process, i.e. to obtain IRFs for it, without estimating it previously?

In particular, I have a calibrated DSGE model and want to add time-varying volatility of shocks into the it. The uncertainty process calibration has already been implemented elsewhere (Bloom, 2012), so I just want to run my model's simulation without an estimation step because I want to use Bloom's calibration. Would that be possible? If yes, how can I do it?

2. I have also been unable to run DH10.mod file, posted in DynareWiki as an example for Markov switching (http://www.dynare.org/DynareWiki/example_swz). This is the error message:
--
ERROR: DH10.mod: line 10, cols 27-42: syntax error, unexpected NAME, expecting RESTRICTIONS or CHAIN or DURATION or NUMBER_OF_REGIMES
Error using dynare (line 156)
DYNARE: preprocessing failed
--

Could you please help me to deal with these two issues?
Thank you in advance.
nastforest
 
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Re: Simulating DSGE with Markov switching process

Postby jpfeifer » Wed Nov 05, 2014 3:24 pm

1. Dynare does not support Markov-Switching DSGE models yet. But it seems you are confusing a Markov process for an exogenous variable (essentially a discretized version of a continuous distribution used as a numerical trick) with a true Markov switching process. For a stochastic volatility process there is no reason to use a discrete Markov process if you solve the model with perturbation. Take a look at the replication files of Born/Pfeifer (2014): "Risk Matters: A comment" at https://sites.google.com/site/pfeiferecon/20140525_replication_codes.zip?attredirects=0 for a SV process. Bloom usually uses global solution techniques that require a discretized version.
2. See http://www.dynare.org/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3586
------------
Johannes Pfeifer
University of Cologne
https://sites.google.com/site/pfeiferecon/
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