simulating a local-linear-trend process directly

This forum is closed. You can read the posts but cannot write. We have migrated the forum to a new location where you will have to reset your password.
Forum rules
This forum is closed. You can read the posts but cannot write. We have migrated the forum to a new location (https://forum.dynare.org) where you will have to reset your password.

simulating a local-linear-trend process directly

Postby pml20 » Wed Nov 17, 2010 10:09 am

Hi,
How do you simulate a local-linear-trend process directly? To be explicit, can you simulate y where
y = y(-1) + mu + x
x = rho*x(-1) + e
without resorting to writing the model as
z =mu + x
x = rho*x(-1) + e
and cumulating simulated z to obtain a simulated y?
If you run the attached program (with the _steadystate.m file), simulated y makes no sense (given the trend and variance, it should be a straight line).
The reason I ask is that I am estimating a much bigger model that includes several unit root variables as observables, and simulating these observables
directly in levels by running stoch-simul on a calibrated version seems to produce nonsensical results.
Thanks for your reply.
Pierre
Attachments
llt_steadystate.m
(109 Bytes) Downloaded 60 times
llt.mod
(291 Bytes) Downloaded 63 times
pml20
 
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2010 11:27 am

Re: simulating a local-linear-trend process directly

Postby pml20 » Wed Nov 17, 2010 10:18 am

In fact, I just noticed that simulated y in the first model is cumulated simulated x, not (x + mu), which is why the trend is missing. Is this a bug?
pml20
 
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2010 11:27 am

Re: simulating a local-linear-trend process directly

Postby SébastienVillemot » Mon Dec 06, 2010 6:00 pm

Dynare is not able to simulate non-stationary variables (it gives NaN as a mean and Infinity as variance for these variables). It is able to estimate non-stationary models under certain conditions.

Note that in former versions of Dynare, there was a bug in the output results for non-stationary variables. Make sure you are using the latest Dynare (4.1.3 at this time).

Best,
Sébastien Villemot
Economist at OFCE – Sciences Po
SébastienVillemot
 
Posts: 706
Joined: Fri Dec 07, 2007 2:29 pm
Location: Paris, France


Return to Dynare help

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 7 guests